LME Aluminum: March 2026 Between Speculative Euphoria and Risk of Adjustment

The LME aluminum market enters March 2026 in a position as solid as it is delicate. Three-month prices are hovering above the psychological threshold of $3,000 per ton, embedded in a rising channel built in recent months.

But beneath the technical surface, a signal urges caution: the speculators’ COT Index has reached 100, the all-time high for the period observed.

This isn’t a minor detail. It’s a warning bell.

Price Structure: Trend Intact, But Less Momentum

After January’s acceleration toward the $3,300–$3,350/ton range, the market corrected, returning to the $3,050–$3,150/ton range. The chart structure remains orderly: rising lows, an ascending channel maintained, and the $3,000/ton area continuing to serve as the central pivot.

As long as this threshold holds, the primary trend remains constructive. However, the impulsive energy seen at the beginning of the year has faded. Prices are now moving in a more lateral, almost wait-and-see dynamic.

And wait, in strongly positioned markets, can become fragile.

COT Index at 100: When Everyone Is Already Long

The data that changes the narrative is the speculators’ COT Index, now just below the 100 area. This means that net long positioning is at its highest level of the entire reference period.

In other words:

• Speculators have already bought en masse;
• Optimism is widespread;
• The marginal potential for new entries is limited.

Historically, these patterns do not mark the beginning of a rally, but rather its mature phase. It doesn’t automatically signal a reversal, but it does indicate that the market is vulnerable to profit-taking.

The key point is this: the price is not at all-time highs, but positioning is. This discrepancy often precedes rebalancing movements.

MBB Forecast: Bullish Bias, But Likely to Cool

The Moving Block Bootstrap model continues to show an upwardly skewed distribution for March 2026:

• Central scenario: $3,150–$3,250/ton;
• Upper percentile: up to $3,350–$3,400/ton;
• Lower percentile: just above $3,000/ton.

The average projection remains bullish, consistent with the structural trend. However, statistical models incorporate past momentum, while the COT signals a current emotional state.

When positioning is extreme, the probability of a temporary deviation from the average path increases.

The Most Likely Scenario for March 2026

Combining technical structure, speculative positioning, and probabilistic simulation, a more nuanced scenario emerges than a simple continuation of the rally.

Dominant Scenario: Corrective Consolidation

March could turn into a month of digestion:

• Fluctuations between $3,000 and $3,200/ton;
• Possible tests below $3,000/ton to “unload” speculative excess;
• Gradual reduction in the COT Index.

Extreme Bullish Scenario:

A final extension towards $3,300/ton, but with a high risk of a rapid retracement.

Risk Scenario:

A clear break of $3,000/ton accompanied by the liquidation of long positions, with an acceleration towards the lower part of the channel.

Conclusion: Strong, But Crowded Market

The medium-term trend remains constructive. The technical foundations are uncompromised. However, the market appears crowded on the long side.

March 2026 may therefore not be the month of explosion, but rather the month of selection. In mature financial markets, it is not the strength of the trend that determines the immediate movement, but rather the balance between those already in and those yet to enter.

And today, on the LME aluminum, the most important question is not “how much higher can it go?”, but rather: who is left to buy?