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Premiums for seaborne full-plate refined nickel imported into China increased during the week to Tuesday January 13, supported by favorable import arbitrage conditions and strong upward momentum in nickel futures prices. By contrast, premiums in the bonded nickel market remained unchanged, highlighting a growing divergence between the physical spot market and bonded channels.
The three-month nickel price on the London Metal Exchange settled at $17,681 per tonne at the 5pm close on Tuesday, down from $18,524 per tonne a week earlier, but still 23.96% higher than the December 16 closing level of $14,263 per tonne.
Nickel LME – 3 month $/ton daily
Indonesia At The Center Of Supply Concerns
The recent rally in LME nickel prices has been fueled by growing concerns over tightening raw material supply, after local government officials in Indonesia reiterated that the country may cut nickel ore mining quotas for 2026.
These statements have reignited supply-side concerns across the value chain, reinforcing expectations of potential structural tightness in raw materials, which has quickly translated into futures prices and physical procurement strategies.
Rising Imports And Improved Spot Liquidity
Sustained profitability of nickel imports continues to incentivize market participants to increase seaborne cathode shipments, improving spot liquidity in the CIF full-plate nickel market and pushing premiums higher.
In the spot market, offers for prime brand units were reported in the range of $250-350 per tonne, reflecting tighter availability and growing competition among buyers.
Import Arbitrage Window Remains Wide Open
The import arbitrage window remained open throughout the week to Tuesday, further strengthening appetite for overseas material. According to Commodity Evolution calculations, the nickel import arbitrage margin stood at a gain of $639.57 per tonne on Tuesday, up from $582.06 per tonne on January 6.
This dynamic has triggered a rush to secure physical supply, with many traders seeking to lock in favorable margins before any potential narrowing of the arbitrage window.
In-Transit Stocks And Warehouse Congestion
Market participants report that the persistently open arbitrage window has driven significant inflows of full-plate nickel imports, tightening immediate availability of prime brand units in the spot market.
Many traders are withdrawing nickel cathodes from LME warehouses for shipment to China, while deliverable warehouses are reportedly almost fully booked, awaiting incoming cargoes. This situation continues to support spot premiums in the near term.
CIF Premiums Rise While Bonded Market Stays Flat
Commodity Evolution assessed the nickel min 99.8% full-plate premium, CIF Shanghai, at $200-300 per tonne on January 13, up from $150-250 per tonne a week earlier.
Nickel Premium min 99.8% Full Plate CIF – China – Shanghai $/ton – Powered by Commodity Evolution
Meanwhile, the bonded nickel market remained stable. The nickel min 99.8% full-plate premium, in-whs Shanghai, was assessed at $20-50 per tonne, unchanged week on week.
Min 99.8% Full Plate Nickel Premium in Stock – China – Shanghai $/ton – Powered by Commodity Evolution
Domestic Market Absorbs Chinese Supply
According to traders based in Shanghai, a growing share of domestically produced nickel cathodes is being sold directly into China’s domestic market, as this channel is more profitable than selling through bonded warehouses. This trend further limits availability in the bonded segment, keeping premiums subdued but stable.
Ripple Effects Reach Europe
The surge in LME nickel prices has also pushed European spot premiums for refined nickel higher, as markets react to the rapid repricing of the global benchmark. This highlights how supply concerns and financial dynamics are simultaneously affecting multiple regions.
Conclusion – Arbitrage And Supply Shape A New Market Balance
The current nickel market phase underscores an environment increasingly driven by international arbitrage and expectations around future supply. In China, rising CIF premiums, growing imports and in-transit stocks are reshaping the spot market, while the bonded segment remains sidelined.
With Indonesia at the center of supply concerns and LME prices still volatile, the nickel market is entering a period of heightened sensitivity, where any signal related to mining quotas, logistics flows or arbitrage conditions could have immediate impacts on premiums and physical availability.