Global primary aluminium production sets new record in October 2024: global trend and regional analysis

World primary aluminium production marked an important milestone in October 2024, reaching a new all-time high of 6.221 million tonnes, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).

This represents a growth of 3.56% over the previous month (M-o-M) and 1.27% over the same period last year (Y-o-Y). The overall recovery, after the September decline, was supported by increased production in all major regions.

From January to October 2024, cumulative production reached 60.472 million tonnes, up 2.84% from 58.8 million tonnes in the same period of 2023. However, to match the total volumes of 2023, global production needs to cover a gap of 10.244 million tonnes in the last two months of the year.

Regional breakdown of primary aluminium production

Besides China, which continues to dominate the global landscape, other regions contributed significantly to the increase in production. Below is a detailed overview of the data by region.

• China: undisputed world leader

Chinese production grew by 3.48% M-o-M, reaching 3.72 million tonnes in October 2024. This represents a new all-time high, surpassing the previous record in August of the same year. On a year-on-year basis, the increase was 1.8%, compared to 3.655 million tonnes produced in October 2023.

In January-October 2024, China produced 36.034 million tonnes, up 3.99% from 34.651 million tonnes in the same period last year. The growth was driven by the resumption of production capacities in Sichuan and Guizhou provinces and the activation of new production lines in Xinjiang, which brought the domestic operating rate to 95.74%, according to data from the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): second largest producer

GCC nations produced 529,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in October 2024, up 2.72% M-o-M from September. However, the volume fell short of August’s record of 531,000 tonnes.

In the January-October period, the GCC’s total production was 5.212 million tonnes, up slightly from 5.177 million tonnes in the same period in 2023. The region remains a stable pillar in global production due to its advanced infrastructure and low energy costs.

• Russia and Eastern Europe: fastest growth

Production in Russia and Eastern Europe grew by 4.62% M-o-M, from 346,000 tonnes to 362,000 tonnes in October 2024. On a year-on-year basis, growth for the first ten months of 2024 was 3.5 per cent, with total production at 3.456 million tonnes, compared to 3.339 million tonnes in the same period last year.

• Asia (excluding China)

Primary aluminium production in Asia (excluding China) grew marginally to 374,000 tonnes in October 2024, marking an increase of 0.81% M-o-M compared to 371,000 tonnes in September. However, on a year-on-year basis, growth was modest at 0.54% compared to 372,000 tonnes produced in the same month in 2023.

From January to October 2024, the region produced a total of 3.698 million tonnes, up slightly from 3.681 million tonnes in the same period of 2023.

• North America

North American production stood at 309,000 tonnes in October 2024, up 2.66% M-o-M from 301,000 tonnes in September. However, on a year-on-year basis, the figure remained broadly stable, up marginally by 0.65% from 307,000 tonnes in October 2023.

In January-October 2024, North America produced 2.984 million tonnes, down slightly from 2.995 million tonnes in the same period of 2023, highlighting the structural difficulties of the sector in the region.

• South America

South American production grew by 2.99% M-o-M, reaching 106,000 tonnes in October 2024. Compared to the same month in 2023, a more pronounced growth of 3.92% was observed, confirming a stable recovery in the region.

In the first ten months of 2024, total production in South America totalled 1.009 million tonnes, marking an increase of 2.33% compared to 986,000 tonnes in the same period of 2023.

• Western Europe

Western Europe produced 269,000 tonnes in October 2024, an increase of 1.51% M-o-M compared to September. However, on a year-on-year basis, production decreased by 0.37% from 270,000 tonnes in October 2023.

In the January-October 2024 period, the region’s total production was 2.723 million tonnes, down from 2.751 million tonnes in the same period of 2023, due to rising energy costs that continue to affect the European industry.

Conclusions

The global primary aluminium market is going through a period of expansion, with some regions, such as China and Russia, showing robust growth, while others, such as Western Europe and North America, face significant challenges.

With the end of 2024 approaching, the industry is looking forward to the data in the coming months, which will be crucial in determining whether the year will end with a new overall record.