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According to Wood Mackenzie consumer awareness of carbon emissions from metals production for the energy transition will eventually spur the recycling industry and encourage the search for substitutes that could spoil the party for large manufacturing companies.
An estimated 360 million tons of aluminum, 90 million tons of copper and 30 million tons of nickel will be needed over the next 20 years in a scenario that limits global warming to less than 2˚C.
Aluminum, copper, and nickel are key materials for electric vehicles, whose sales are expected to increase in the coming years.
There are many new technologies such as hydrogen and polymer energy storage that could dramatically change the clean energy landscape.
Producing one ton of aluminum from scratch results in an average of 17 tons of carbon emissions compared to 0.6 tons emitted by secondary or recycled aluminum.
Mining copper emits 2.3-2.5 tons of carbon per ton of metal, while smelting adds another 1.65 tons compared to a maximum of 1.5 tons for recycled metal.
A precedent for awareness of the problems arising from metal mining and production is plastics made from fossil fuels, which over the past 10 years has prompted consumers to look at recycling and substitution.
Metal consumption could also be reduced, for example, by switching to shared rather than individual vehicle ownership.
The era of consumer awareness could be the next chapter in society’s awakening – and it would no doubt be uncomfortable for those betting on unlimited demand for metals.
Examples of miners who also have recycling operations are few. One is aluminum producer Norsk Hydro, which has recycling operations that contributed NOK 1.4 billion to its EBITDA last year.
