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Metals: Prices and Scenarios — Commodity Evolution’s Weekly Market Briefing Issue 4 | 22 October 2026 — Data as of 21 October 2026
Which price should be used to value aluminium purchases for 2027? For procurement teams, the answer starts with quantities, delivery schedules and contract terms. The current quotation is a market reference; the budget must translate it into a cost consistent with the company’s requirements.
The key step is to separate volumes already priced from volumes still unpriced. Applying the latest quotation to the entire requirement may overlook existing commitments and misstate the impact of market movements.
Latest Price And Averages: What Do They Show?
As of 21 October, Commodity Evolution reports a latest aluminium cash price of €2,698.32/t. The average from 21 July to 21 October is €2,799.44/t; the year-to-date average is €2,856.18/t.
Source: Commodity Evolution. Latest price: chart ask as of 21 October 2026. Historical averages: portal tables, 14:30 fixing with Bloomberg currency conversion. Prices in €/t
These references help assess a cost assumption. None of them alone is a forecast for 2027. A historical average may also differ substantially from conditions applying to future deliveries.
Start With The Contractual Pricing Formula
For each material, buyers should identify the reference determining the metal component: cash or another maturity, daily quotation or monthly average, pricing period and currency conversion method. The budget assumption should follow the same logic as the contract.
Requirements should then be allocated by delivery month, separating priced and unpriced quantities. A confirmed order whose price is still to be determined remains exposed to movements in the metal component; order confirmation alone does not fix the cost.
A Practical Example: 100 Tonnes, With 60 Still Unpriced
Consider a hypothetical requirement of 100 tonnes: 40 tonnes already priced at €2,750/t for the metal component, and 60 tonnes still unpriced. The priced volumes account for €110,000.
Illustrative example using a hypothetical fixed price, unchanged volumes and the metal component alone. The three valuations are sensitivity comparisons, not purchase price forecasts
Using the year-to-date average rather than the latest price changes the budget by €9,471.60, because only the 60 unpriced tonnes are affected. Similarly, a €100/t increase in the unpriced metal component would add €6,000.
From Market Reference To Delivered Cost
The full budget should include the physical premium, processing, transport and other applicable costs. Showing these separately makes supplier offers easier to compare and helps identify whether an increase comes from the metal or supplier terms.
Currency conversion is already incorporated in a euro-denominated reference and should not be added again. Other components may have their own adjustment mechanisms: fixing the metal price does not necessarily fix the full delivered price.
When Should The Budget Be Updated?
Updates should distinguish actual expenditure, purchases already priced and unpriced requirements. Apply the revised assumption to the volumes still unpriced, and separate variances arising from the metal price, quantities, delivery timing and supply terms.
Procurement can then quantify the impact on remaining costs and agree with finance when to revise the budget. Commodity Evolution provides quotations, averages and historical series to document assumptions and support negotiation.
Does your budget already separate priced volumes from unpriced quantities? Tell me which materials and contractual references you use and I will show you the relevant series available on the platform.