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Metals: Prices and Outlook — Commodity Evolution’s Weekly Observatory, Issue No. 3 | October 15, 2026 — Data updated as of October 14, 2026
Copper prices in US dollars have shown little movement since the end of August. Yet, for a company operating in euros, the metal component has become significantly more expensive. This discrepancy stems from the exchange rate: as the euro weakens against the dollar, more euros are required to purchase the same quantity of metal.
The three charts provided by Commodity Evolution illustrate this effect on LME cash copper. This comparison is essential for those updating budgets or evaluating price quotes; relying solely on the dollar-denominated price can lead to an incomplete picture of actual procurement costs.
Copper Prices Rise, but the Two Currencies Tell Different Stories
Over the period covered by both copper price series—from mid-July to October 14—the price rose from approximately 13,540 to 14,750 US dollars per tonne. During the same timeframe, the euro-denominated price increased from roughly 11,870 to 13,180 euros per tonne—an uptick of nearly 11%, compared to an increase of about 9% in dollar terms.
The impact of the exchange rate becomes even more apparent when focusing on the period since the end of August: while the price of copper in US dollars has seen only a modest rise, the price in euros has experienced a significantly sharper increase.
LME cash copper — dollars per tonne. Data as of October 14, 2026. Source: Commodity Evolution.
A Weaker Euro Amplifies Price Increases
At the end of August, one euro is worth 1.1618 dollars. By October 14, the exchange rate is 1.1195: consequently, the same euro buys fewer dollars. For a raw material priced in the U.S. currency, this increases its equivalent value in euros.
| Reference | End of August | October 14 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rame LME cash, $/t | ≈ 14.500 | 14.750 | ≈ +1,7% |
| EUR/USD, dollari per euro | 1,1618 | 1,1195 | −3,64% |
| Rame LME cash, €/t | 12.481 | ≈ 13.176 | ≈ +5,57% |
Exchange rates and initial price in euros provided by Commodity Evolution
EUR/USD exchange rate — dollars per euro. Data as of October 14, 2026. Source: Commodity Evolution.
The conversion is calculated by dividing the price in dollars by the EUR/USD exchange rate. Holding the price of copper constant, a shift in the exchange rate from 1.1618 to 1.1195 would, by itself, result in an increase of approximately 3.78% in the value expressed in euros. Over the period under review, this effect combines with the rise in the price of the metal, bringing the total increase in euro terms to around 5.57%.
LME cash copper — euros per tonne. Data as of October 14, 2026. Source: Commodity Evolution.
What Is the Impact on the Procurement Budget?
Let’s consider an illustrative requirement of 100 tonnes. Comparing an initial figure of €12,481/tonne with an indicative final value of €13,176/tonne, the price increase amounts to approximately €695 per tonne—an additional cost of roughly €69,500 for the metal component alone. Premiums, processing costs, transport, and other commercial terms must be added based on the actual supply arrangement.
Furthermore, the quoted price depends on the contractual basis: whether it is pegged to a daily market quote, an average over a specific period, a particular exchange rate, or prices that have already been locked in. If a company has pre-agreed on an exchange rate or a fixed price, the impact on its procurement costs may differ from the trends shown in the data series.
How Can Costs Be Made More Predictable?
Spread out your purchases over time. When requirements, logistics, and supplier agreements allow, dividing volumes across multiple points in time reduces reliance on a single market date. While this does not guarantee the lowest possible price, it limits the risk of concentrating all your purchasing on an unfavorable day.
Consider a fixed price in euros for confirmed orders. If quantities and delivery schedules are certain, agreeing on a price in euros can make costs more predictable. It is advisable to compare this against a variable-price offer and review volume commitments; if the market price drops, a pre-fixed price might prove less advantageous.
Verify exactly what is being locked in. Fixing the price of copper in US dollars leaves you exposed to currency fluctuations if the exchange rate has yet to be determined. The contract should clearly specify which components are fixed and which remain subject to change.
Request transparent, easy-to-understand quotes and prepare various budget scenarios. Separating the costs of the metal, exchange rate, premium, and processing makes it possible to identify the source of any variance. Modeling scenarios—such as a weaker euro or higher copper prices—also helps assess the robustness of your budget: for every 100-ton volume, a price increase of 100 euros per ton requires an additional 10,000 euros.
Which Benchmark Should You Use in Negotiations?
When evaluating an offer, you must ensure that the metal price and the exchange rate are aligned with the time frame specified in your contract. If the benchmark is already quoted in euros—as shown in the second copper chart—the currency conversion is already factored in and should not be accounted for a second time.
This comparison illustrates why metal prices and exchange rates must be monitored in tandem: a minor fluctuation in dollar-denominated prices can translate into a significant budgetary impact when measured in euros. With Commodity Evolution, you can access price quotes, exchange rates, and historical data to support your planning and supplier negotiations.
Do you track your procurement costs in dollars or in euros? Get in touch and let us know which materials you use; we will show you the relevant benchmarks available on our portal.