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Metals: Prices and Outlook — Commodity Evolution’s Weekly Market Monitor, Issue No. 1 | October 1, 2026
Copper is correcting from its September highs. For those looking to purchase material, this movement raises a practical question: how much of this price drop will be reflected in the next quote?
The answer depends partly on the physical premium. Commodity Evolution’s charts reveal two movements heading in opposite directions during the latter part of September: the LME cash price (in euros) is retreating, while the weekly premium is rising again.
This divergence is worth watching to understand how procurement costs are shifting and to approach negotiations with more precise benchmarks.
The recent decline must be viewed within the context of an overall upward trend for the quarter.
The LME cash copper chart shows the price starting at approximately €11,560/tonne in early July, undergoing various fluctuations, and reaching nearly €13,000/tonne in the second half of September. By the end of the period, it has settled back to around €12,670/tonne.
Based on approximate readings from the chart, this represents a correction of about 2.5% from the peak. However, the final level remains nearly 10% higher than the starting point; for a company comparing new purchases against its July budget, the cost pressure regarding the metal component remains evident.
LME cash copper, €/tonne — daily readings. Source: Commodity Evolution
The premium recovers after the summer decline
The premium trend shows a different pattern. From around €180/tonne in early July, the benchmark fell steadily, reaching approximately €121–122/tonne in the readings taken on September 15 and 22. On September 29, it rose back to around €154/tonne.
The increase compared to the previous week is therefore approximately €32/tonne, or 26%. While the premium remains below July levels, the latest reading marks an end to the period of weakness.
For buyers, the absolute value also matters: a significant percentage change in the premium applies to a component that is much smaller than the metal’s quoted price.
Grade A Copper Cathode Premium – Rotterdam, €/tonne — weekly readings from the monitored series. Source: Commodity Evolution.
What does this mean for the next price quote?
The recovery of the premium can offset some of the benefit gained from the drop in copper prices. However, the extent of this impact must be assessed by comparing the two components on the same dates and ensuring the premium applies to the specific supply requested.
These charts alone do not prove that the total cost has risen; rather, they show that the metal component and the physical premium are moving through different phases.
Furthermore, copper prices are already quoted in euros. The currency conversion effect is therefore already factored into the data series and should not be added a second time during the comparison.
To evaluate a supplier’s offer, the crucial step is to verify the pricing basis—such as whether a daily rate or a monthly average is used—and identify the surcharges that make up the total cost. Factors such as processing, technical specifications, and delivery terms also influence the price of semi-finished products.
A falling daily quote can, in fact, coexist with an offer still pegged to the previous month’s average.
The most useful reference point for purchasing is the one that allows you to reconstruct the final price.
Tracking both the metal price and the premium helps you understand the scope for price adjustments and identify which component to discuss with the supplier. It also provides a more solid foundation for budget updates, especially when different cost elements are moving in opposite directions.
With Commodity Evolution, you can access quotes, historical data, and market analysis to support your budgeting and negotiation processes.
Which materials do you purchase, and what benchmarks do you use to compare offers? Write to me, and I’ll show you the relevant quotes available on the portal.