Loading
The European copper premium market remained largely calm on Tuesday January 27, with the majority of buyers covered by long-term contracts and therefore absent from the spot market.
According to information gathered by Commodity Evolution, the current phase of stagnation reflects still-high stock levels and demand reduced to simple hand-to-mouth purchases, limited to immediate needs.
Market sources agree that greater clarity on premium developments could emerge starting from February, when stocks will gradually begin to decline and the market will be forced to confront a tighter balance between availability and requirements.
High Stocks And The End Of Low-Priced Material
According to several operators, cheaper material is progressively disappearing, being linked to old stocks accumulated during 2025. This process, however, has not yet translated into a recovery in spot demand, which continues to remain weak and fragmented.
In other words, the erosion of low-cost stocks is not sufficient, on its own, to reactivate the market, in the absence of a clear catalyst on the industrial or financial demand side.
Germany: The Only Market With A Slight Pullback
The weekly assessment by Commodity Evolution for the grade A copper cathode premium, delivered Germany, stood at $230–260 per tonne, down by $5 per tonne week on week. Germany was the only European market to record a slight decline, reflecting limited appetite for restocking and slightly lower price indications emerging from negotiations.
Copper Cathode Premium Grade A – Germany $/ton – Powered by Commodity Evolution
Some operators reported offers for second-quarter deliveries at significantly higher levels, around $330 per tonne delivered, but such proposals were considered unattractive in a context of still-lukewarm demand.
Long-Term Contracts Freeze Spot Activity
One of the key elements that is paralyzing the European spot market for copper premiums is the high level of coverage provided by long-term contracts. According to several operators, purchases made previously ensure sufficient supply at least for January and February, drastically reducing the urgency to return to the spot market.
This context makes it extremely difficult for sellers to achieve high premiums on spot transactions, despite the existence of a regional benchmark for 2026 that is significantly higher than in previous years. Price expectations therefore remain disconnected from the immediate reality of trades, creating a gap between sellers’ targets and buyers’ willingness.
Some sources nevertheless underline that liquidity needs could gradually bring volumes back to the spot market in the medium term, pushing some holders of material to sell in order to finance working capital. This factor could partially reactivate trading, but does not yet represent a true structural driver.
Rotterdam: An Extremely Quiet Market
The market in Rotterdam confirms itself as one of the quietest in Europe. The weekly assessment by Commodity Evolution for the grade A copper cathode premium, cif Rotterdam, remained stable in the range $210–230 per tonne, unchanged from the previous session.
Grade A Copper Cathode Premium – Rotterdam $/ton – Powered by Commodity Evolution
Sources indicate that commercial activity is reduced to a minimum, with very few deals concluded and a widespread wait-and-see attitude among both buyers and sellers. Available stocks and the lack of immediate demand pressure contribute to keeping the market in a phase of substantial immobility.
Italy: Demand Also Stagnant On The Import Market
A similar scenario is also observed in Italy. The import market via Livorno remains without signs of recovery, with operators confirming a lack of interest in additional spot volumes.
The grade A copper cathode premium, cif leghorn, was assessed at $200–220 per tonne, unchanged from the previous week. Price stability reflects a static equilibrium, where material availability and contractual coverage prevent any significant movement.
Grade A Copper Cathode Premium Leghorn CIF – $/ton – Powered by Commodity Evolution
LME Stocks: Overall Stability With A Single Exception
On the front of stocks registered at the London Metal Exchange, the situation appears overall stable, reinforcing the idea of a well-supplied market. On-warrant stocks in Rotterdam remained at 9,775 tonnes, unchanged week on week.
In Hamburg, on-warrant stocks remained unchanged at 3,075 tonnes, while Livorno recorded a significant increase, with stocks rising to 875 tonnes, up by 700 tonnes in just one week.
This specific increase in Italy contributes to reinforcing the perception of supply abundance, further reducing any upward pressure on premiums in the short term.
Conclusion: Waiting For February For A New Balance
Overall, the European copper premium market is moving in a phase of controlled standstill, supported by high stocks and broad contractual coverage, but lacking spot demand capable of triggering a change of pace. The gradual disappearance of cheaper material represents a potential supporting factor, but is not yet sufficient to reactivate trading.
Operators are now looking to February as a possible turning point, when the gradual reduction of stocks could begin to redefine the balance between availability and demand. Until then, premiums are likely to remain stable or slightly under pressure, in a market dominated more by waiting than by action.