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Over the past month, the industrial metals complex has seen a significant recovery, with an overall positive picture in both dollar and euro prices, despite some divergences that are beginning to outline increasingly differentiated market trajectories.
The most notable movement undoubtedly concerns tin, which remains the leading metal for the period. Prices recorded a double-digit jump: over +15% in dollars and over +12% in euros on a monthly basis. This rally was supported by demand from the electronics sector and a highly constructive sentiment, which pushed the market into a phase of acceleration that is distinct from the other metals in the basket.
Copper also performed very solidly, consolidating its role as a barometer of the global economy. The red metal gained approximately +11% in dollars and almost +9% in euros, supported by a combination of more favorable macroeconomic factors, expectations of stimulus in China, and greater fluidity in trade between international markets. The movement appears structured and accompanied by volumes, a sign of improving industrial sentiment.
Nickel is also among the metals experiencing strong recovery, closing the month with gains of more than 5% in dollars and over 3% in euros. After months of pressure related to oversupply, the market appears to have found equilibrium, aided by a temporary slowdown in sales and a partial rebound in demand, particularly in the stainless steel sector.
Primary aluminum is showing a more gradual but still positive trend. Prices are up over 4.5% in dollars and around 2.5% in euros, signaling a cautious recovery, still impacted by high inventories and physical demand that remains selective, especially in Europe. The movement appears more defensive than copper and tin, but still indicates an improvement in sentiment.
Lead fared less well, closing the month in negative territory in both currencies, with a decline of nearly 1% in dollars and almost 3% in euros. The metal continues to suffer from weak demand in the traditional battery sector and is struggling to match the recovery seen in other sectors.
Zinc’s weakness is even more evident, showing a diverging trend: while the monthly decline in dollars remains limited, just over 1%, in euros the decline accelerates to around -3%. This signal reflects persistent pressure on the European market, where industrial demand remains fragile and supply continues to play a dominant role.
Overall, the month saw a marked improvement in sentiment for industrial metals, with a clear rotation toward metals more closely tied to energy transition and technological demand. However, divergences between individual products remain marked, suggesting that the recovery is not uniform, but selective. This dynamic could prove decisive in shaping the following month’s price trajectories.
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Copper: A Market Split Between Upstream Structural Tension and Downstream Seasonal Stagnation
The copper market enters the end of the year, revealing an increasingly evident dichotomy between the upstream and downstream segments of the supply chain. Antofagasta’s decision to accept zero treatment and refining charges for part of its 2026 supplies to Chinese smelters represents a symbolic and structural step.
This is not simply an aggressive agreement, but a snapshot of a deeply unbalanced concentrate market, where supply shortages have significantly shifted bargaining power toward mining producers.
The zeroing of the benchmark—after months of already strongly negative spot TC—highlights how the traditional reference system is increasingly distant from market reality.
Smelting capacity, especially in Asia, remains high, while concentrate supply continues to be limited by project delays, declines in ore quality, and operational challenges. In this context, smelters are forced to accept increasingly harsh conditions to secure volumes.
Upstream Pressure Set to Last
The tension in the concentrate market does not appear to be transitory. On the contrary, structural elements suggest that the imbalance between mineral supply and smelting capacity will continue in the coming months.
This strengthens the position of producers and further reduces the room for maneuver for smelters, who are seeing their margins compressed with no real alternatives in the short term.
The increasingly concrete risk is that this pressure will be progressively transmitted along the supply chain, impacting cathode dynamics as soon as physical demand returns with greater intensity.
Europe: Slowing Demand and Compressed Premiums
Downstream, the picture changes radically. In Europe, recent weeks have confirmed a marked slowdown in demand for copper cathodes, more pronounced than the seasonal average. Premiums are showing a slight decline and, above all, a contraction in ranges, a sign of a market that continues to function but with reduced trade and less urgency on the part of consumers.
Plant maintenance and the winter holidays are limiting purchase volumes, while some sellers, driven by liquidity needs related to the financial year-end, appear more inclined to offer discounts. The result is a lighter market, characterized by timely negotiations and little directionality.
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Logistics Hubs Stable, But Lacking Momentum
Rotterdam and Livorno continue to represent key hubs for the European market. Premiums remain essentially unchanged, but liquidity is limited and transactions are sporadic. Despite this, material flows to COMEX warehouses in the United States remain open, thanks to a still favorable arbitrage window.
The EQ cathode market also reflects the same dynamic: stable prices, limited trading, and a wait-and-see attitude among operators, who prefer to postpone strategic decisions until the early months of the new year.
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United States: Quiet End of Year and Abundant Inventories
In the United States, the market appears even more static. Midwest premiums have remained unchanged for weeks, supported by a high level of material availability accumulated throughout the year. Demand, already weak, slowed further in December, leading to a virtual freeze in commercial activity.
Operators confirm that focus is shifting to 2026 contracts. Possible logistics delays could generate a temporary increase in activity in the early months of the new year, but high inventories suggest that a rapid change in price range is unlikely.
Physical Premiums: Seasonal Inertia in the Short Term
The situation is different for physical premiums, which will remain influenced by seasonality in the short term. In Europe and the United States, it is difficult to imagine a significant recovery before the reopening of plants and the recovery of industrial demand. Premiums could therefore remain compressed or slightly under pressure for several more weeks.
LME Price: Well-Established Uptrend and Higher Highs
Copper’s chart performance further reinforces the fundamental view of a structurally sound market. After a long sideways phase in the first half of the year, prices have gradually built an orderly uptrend, characterized by higher lows and higher highs and relatively limited volatility.
In recent weeks, the price has accelerated, decisively breaking through intermediate resistance and steadily rising above the $12,000/t area, a level that now plays a key role as technical support. This trend appears to be accompanied by increasing volumes and still-positive momentum indicators, suggesting that the movement is not purely speculative but supported by an improvement in overall sentiment.
The corrective phases observed along the way have proven to be brief and shallow, a sign of a solid market structure, where any retracements are quickly absorbed by buying.
Consolidation Likely, But Bias Still Constructive
In the short term, the most plausible scenario is not an immediate further acceleration, but rather a consolidation phase at high levels. The seasonal context at the end of the year, with slowing physical demand and compressed premiums, limits the potential for upside surges in the very short term.
However, the chart suggests that any profit-taking could remain limited, with the market tending to defend the area between $11,800 and $12,000/t. As long as these levels hold, the bullish structure will remain intact.
In this context, the price appears more oriented towards building a solid base ahead of the start of the new year rather than reversing the trend.
Fundamentals and Technicals Converge Toward a Sustained Start to 2026
The strength of the technical trend fits perfectly within the fundamental framework outlined by the tension in the concentrate market.
The elimination of TC/RC, the structural shortage of mineral supply, and the growing bargaining power of producers represent implicit price support, even in a phase of temporarily weak final demand.
This asymmetry between the upstream and downstream sides of the supply chain is also clearly evident from the graph: the market is pricing in future supply risk more than the contingent weakness of end-of-year consumption.
Scenario for the Next Month: Holding Levels and Preparing for a Restart
Looking ahead to the next month, the most likely scenario is copper remaining firmly above $12,000/t, with limited fluctuations and a market awaiting new catalysts.
The true direction may emerge more clearly only between late January and February, when industrial demand gradually returns to normal.
In the absence of negative macro shocks, the chart suggests that downside risk remains limited, while upside potential remains latent and tied to the reactivation of physical demand and a possible further tightening of the concentrate market.
Conclusion: A Market That Accumulates Energy
Copper closes the year in a position of strength. The chart depicts a market that is not reversing, but accumulating: it absorbs profit-taking, defends key levels, and remains supported by fundamentals that continue to deteriorate on the supply side.
The following month will likely be a transitional phase, but the technical and structural foundations indicate that the uptrend is not over. Rather, it appears to be preparing to find a new direction at the start of 2026.
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