Speculators on a Razor’s Edge: What COT Positions in Copper, Aluminum, and Tin Tell Us

Looking at the images—LME copper, aluminum, and tin—is like leafing through a novel with three intertwined plots: the same timelines, similar characters (speculators), but very different personalities and reactions depending on the metal.

 

The chart shows the LME price; the lower one shows the speculators’ COT index, normalized between 0 and 100. In practice:

• Values ​​close to 100 = speculators strongly net long, “optimistic/crowded long” positioning;
• Values ​​close to 0 = speculators strongly net short or almost completely disengaged;
• Intermediate values ​​describe phases of indecision or full rounds of “take profits” and rebalancing.

We begin with copper, which acts as a sort of “macro thermometer” for metals, then move on to aluminum and tin, and conclude with a cross-sectional reading.

1. Copper: From Collapse of Confidence to New Euphoria

1.1. 2022: From Post-Pandemic Bubble to Disillusionment

At the beginning of the chart, copper is trading around $9,500–$10,000/t, with a brief acceleration above $10.5k. Speculators’ COT index is relatively high (around 50–60): we are not in a phase of extreme euphoria, but definitely in a context in which investors are overall long and confident.

Then, during 2022, comes the reversal:

• The price collapses towards the $7,000/t area, signaling a combination of macroeconomic concerns (recession, restrictive monetary policy, Chinese slowdown) and a reduction in positions.
• The COT index fell in tandem, sliding from moderately “optimistic” levels to values ​​around the 20–30 range, with a brief dip even lower.

Here we see the classic “orderly capitulation” dynamic: not a flash crash of pure panic, but a gradual abandonment of the hyper-bullish narrative about the post-Covid recovery and copper as the big winner of the “now and everywhere” energy transition.

Speculators, in short, are exiting the trade. And the price meekly follows.

1.2. 2023: A Long Recovery Phase Without Conviction

Starting in 2023, copper has rebounded: prices have returned to the $8,200–9,000/t range, with a pattern of rising highs and lows but without a truly explosive breakout.

The COT, however, tells a more tepid story:

• At the beginning of 2023, a partial return of confidence is evident (the index is rising toward the 50-60 range), but
• Over the course of the year, speculative positions fluctuate, oscillating between 30 and 50, with moments of clear “I’ll take profit and step aside.”

This is a classic phase in which the market knows that copper has structurally sound fundamentals (electrification, renewables, electric vehicles, a deficit of new large mining projects), but the macroeconomic picture—inflation, rates, and China’s fluctuating outlook—prevents them from stepping on the accelerator.

Speculators are no longer aggressive shorts, but they’re also no longer convinced they’re jumping on the bandwagon of a long-term trend: their positioning reflects tactical strategies rather than a true long-term directional bet.

1.3. 2024: The Start of the Great Trend and the Speculators’ Rush

The most interesting thing on the entire chart happens in the first half of 2024:

1. The price begins to rise more consistently, reaching well above $9,000, then $10,000/t.
2. The COT index, which had also fallen significantly (almost to zero between late 2023 and early 2024), explodes upward: in a few months, it goes from “flat” levels to a practically extreme position, close to 100.

This is a textbook dynamic:

• First phase: initial rally with few positions (short covering + first strong hands buying). The market rises, but the COT remains low: those outside watch, those short cover.
• Second phase: when the rally consolidates, the storytelling changes (“copper is the new green oil,” “large supply deficit in the medium term”).
• Speculators begin to chase the price, further fueling the bullish movement.

The mid-2024 peak, with copper above $10.5–$11k and the COT in the 90–$100 range, is a clear moment of speculative euphoria: positions are heavily long, the margin for error is shrinking, and any macro or micro disappointment can trigger a wave of profit-taking.

1.4. 2024–2025: Technical Correction and New Bullish Leg

After this peak:

• We see a price correction: copper retraces, falling towards the $9,000–$9,200/t range;
• At the same time, the COT index declines, though remaining in a relatively high range (40–$60). This indicates that some funds are exiting, but there is no radical reversal in sentiment.

It’s a wind-down phase: those who entered late are cashing in, those who believe in the long term are holding on, and those who are structurally bullish are using the decline to recharge.

In the final part of the chart, in 2025:

• The price is recovering and reaffirming its all-time highs (reaching $12,000/t and beyond).
• The COT index is once again pushing towards very high levels, 80–90, a sign that speculators are once again heavily exposed to the long side.

The implicit message is clear: In copper, the speculative market is once again heavily loaded with bullish positions.

There is scope for further gains, but it is increasingly contingent on the tenability of the “structural copper deficit” narrative and the stability of the macroeconomic environment.

Any negative shock—macro or political—can turn into a violent correction, precisely because there is little “short fuel” to burn and so many people on the same side of the table.

2. Aluminum: A Slow, Patient, and Much Less Speculative Recovery

If copper is the energetic protagonist experiencing violent emotional cycles, aluminum is the more “rational” character in the metals novel: fewer explosions, less panic, more industrial cyclicality, and less speculative volatility.

The chart shows this with almost didactic clarity.

2.1. 2022: From Euphoria to an Orderly Descent

At the beginning of 2022, aluminum is recovering from a great post-pandemic rally, driven by European energy bottlenecks and the closure of electricity-intensive production capacity. It reaches the $3,800–$4,000/t range, extreme levels compared to the historical average.

Let’s look at the COT:

• The index is very high (around 90–100).
• Speculators are massively long: the market seems to believe that the European energy crisis is structural and that primary metal supply will collapse.

Then comes the reality check:

• Prices rapidly fall towards $2,400–$2,500/t, and subsequently fluctuate just above $2,200–$2,300/t.
• The COT index collapses into the 20–40 range, revealing an orderly rout of speculators.

It’s a classic case of “crowded long → deleveraging”: everyone on the same side, then everyone moving out.

But unlike copper, where the macro shock triggers an emotional reaction, here the decline is “cooler”: the supply-demand dynamic for aluminum is much more tied to industrial cycles and energy costs, and less to the long-term narrative.

2.2. 2023: Very Long Sideways and Positioning at the Lows

Aluminum is almost flat in 2023:

• Prices between $2,200 and $2,500/t.
• Technical movements, but no real directional trend.

The COT chart is even more revealing: we are in one of the most sluggish phases in recent history, often in the 10–30 range.

What does this mean?

1. Speculators are abandoning the metal completely.
2. The aluminum market at that time is dominated by “boring” fundamentals: weak demand, normalized energy costs, China in structural surplus.

3. The lack of narrative = lack of speculators.

In fact, one of the most important signs is the absence of significant short positions: the COT doesn’t go to zero because there isn’t even a strong bearish positioning. It’s simply an ignored market.

2.3. 2024: The Awakening and Gradual Return of Speculators

In the first half of 2024, a slow but steady improvement begins:

• Prices rise above $2,300, then $2,500, repeatedly testing $2,700–$2,800/t, and finally reaching $2,900/t in 2025.
• The COT index rises from extremely low levels to values ​​of 45–60, with some peaks in the 70–80 range.

The key point is that aluminum is not experiencing an impulsive rally like copper. It is a gradual recovery trend, supported by:

• expected deficits related to capacity constraints in China,
• possible refining restrictions in Europe,
• improving downstream margins (rolled products, extrusions),
• declining LME inventory dynamics.

The speculative psychology is different:

• No sudden euphoria.
• No short squeeze crash.
• A “reasoned” rally, in which speculators slowly re-enter and only after seeing prices consolidate new support.

2.4. 2025: Still No Euphoria (And That’s a Good Thing)

At the end of the chart, the price is in a clearer bullish channel. But what’s striking is that:

• The COT almost never exceeds 90–100.
• It remains in a “prudent” range, between 50 and 80.

In other words: Speculators believe in the aluminum trend, but they aren’t “riding” it like in 2022.

And this is a very important aspect:

• It means there’s still room for additional long positions in the event of a structural breakout.
• There is (for now) no risk of a crash fueled by overcrowded positions on the long side.
• Aluminum continues to be a market where fundamentals matter more than speculative narratives.

It’s almost the opposite of copper, where everyone is chasing the “supercycle + deficit” story, burdening the market with technical risks.

3. Tin: The Most Volatile Metal, But Also the Most Mysterious

Tin is a tiny market compared to copper and aluminum; therefore, speculative movements are amplified. It is a metal where:

• a few players make a difference,
• supply shocks (Burma, Indonesia) can move the price by +30% or -30% in a few days,
• LME inventories are almost irrelevant,
• volatility is innate.

And the COT chart fully reflects this.

3.1. 2022: Vertical Collapse and Speculators Vanish

At the beginning of 2022, tin was trading near $40,000–$45,000/t, following the pandemic rally linked to the electronics boom.

Then the fall:

• Prices suddenly fell towards $25,000, then $20,000 and even below.
• The COT index plummeted from over 50 to almost zero.

There is no prudence here, no transition: it’s a real flight.

Speculators are withdrawing from the market because:

• Post-Covid electronics demand is slowing,
• Previously interrupted smelters and mines are returning to service,
• The metal has lost its “scarcity” aura.

3.2. 2023: Slight Recovery, But Speculators Still Uninterested

In 2023, prices will fluctuate in the $23,000–$30,000/t range, a broad channel but with no clear direction.

The COT index often remains between 5 and 20, a very low value:

• Speculators consider tin to be too volatile a market compared to its potential return;
• There is no powerful and convincing narrative like with copper;
• Supply shocks are unpredictable, but not “guaranteed” enough to justify large investments.

Tin thus becomes the “ghost metal”: few trade it, and when they do, it’s only for tactical reasons.

3.3. 2024: Impulsive Awakening and the Return of Speculators

A decidedly more dynamic phase begins in 2024:

• Prices rise towards $30,000 and then $35,000/t.
• The COT rebounds to the 50–60 range and then even higher.

This dynamic is very different from that of aluminum:

• It’s not an orderly trend;
• It’s a purely speculative movement, often driven by rumors of mine closures, Indonesian restrictions, and tensions over Chinese refining.

Tin is a “thin” market, and speculators know it: it takes little capital to move it a lot.

3.4. 2025: Back in Rally Mode

Toward the end of the chart, in 2025:

• Prices exceed $38,000–$40,000/t.
• The COT reaches very high levels, around $80–$90.

Unlike aluminum, where positioning is “moderate,” we are in a context of strong long-term speculation.

This is a sign: Tin has entered a phase of euphoria, and the risk of explosive volatility is very high.

It all depends on how long the supply-tightening narrative lasts. If there is a denial or an unexpected announcement (e.g., new mining licenses or increased Chinese refining), the market could reverse in a few sessions.

4. Cross-Sectional Reading: Who Is Most at Risk of a Correction? Who Still Has Room for a Rally?

Analyzing the three markets together provides very useful conclusions, especially for understanding where speculators are “overextending” and where there is room for further gains.

4.1. Copper Is the Most Speculator-Ridden Market

• COT often above 80–90,
• price at all-time highs,
• very strong narrative (energy transition).

Main risk:

• Correction from over-positioning;
• Volatility amplified if weak macro data or signs of a Chinese slowdown arrive.

Catalyst for further gains:

• Mining production cuts;
• Physical deficit faster than expected.

4.2. Aluminum Is the “Healthiest”: Well-Supported Trend and Moderate Speculators

• Medium-high COT but not euphoric;
• Ordinary uptrend;
• Gradually improving fundamentals.

Low-medium risk:

Aluminum may decline for macro reasons, but it is not in a speculative bubble.

Positive catalyst:

• Chinese energy restrictions,
• resurgence of Europeanelectricity costs,
• faster drawdown of LME inventories.

4.3. Tin Is the Most Volatile and Most Exposed to Opposite Shocks

• Very high COT in 2025;
• Evident speculative rally.

Extremely high risk:
Any news on supply can reverse the trend and cause movements of -10% in two days.

Bullish catalyst:
Any news on Indonesian exports or Burmese mines.

5. Conclusion: Three Very Different Stories for Three Different Metals

Copper tells a story of macro-structural euphoria, with speculators chasing highs.

Aluminum tells a story of a slow and orderly recovery, where speculators finally return but with caution.

Tin tells a story of volatility and extreme speculation, where small shifts in the narrative can move the price violently.

In a nutshell:

• Copper → bullish but overcrowded;
• Aluminum → bullish and healthy;
• Tin → bullish but very fragile.