The Global Zinc Mosaic: Europe Stalled, US Slow, Asia Divided

The global zinc market, in the midst of a season characterized by industrial uncertainty and delays in negotiations, is experiencing a period of apparent calm that masks increasingly evident tensions and divergences between Europe, the United States, and Asia.

Three regions, three different speeds, a single underlying question: where is real demand moving?

The information gathered by Commodity Evolution paints a complex picture, slowing down but far from lacking decisive insights for the coming year.

A Europe at a Stall: High Premiums, Weak Demand, Stalled Contracts

In Europe, the market thermometer has remained surprisingly stable. Premiums for SHG zinc (min. 99.995%) on an FCA Rotterdam and FCA Antwerp basis have remained stable in a range of $230-$250/t, unchanged for almost a month.

This figure alone doesn’t convey the tension simmering beneath the surface.

Producers are pushing hard to define a new European benchmark for 2026, including a price increase. Some of the industry’s largest operators have put forward proposals in the range of $240-250/t, a threshold deemed “unacceptable” by more than one trader.

“Producers want to raise the bar, but no one has signed yet,” a European operator confided to Commodity Evolution. “The question is who will be the first to give in.”

The market, however, tells a different story: zinc demand remained flat in the second half of the year, with no signs of recovery. Traders of the metal fear tying themselves to long-term contracts, which, with excessively high premiums, would become difficult to manage in a context of uncertain industrial demand.

It’s therefore not surprising that many prefer a benchmark between $215 and $240/t, a threshold deemed more consistent with the macroeconomic environment and demand trends.

Italy is no exception:

• fca dp Italy: $265-$285/t;
• ddp Italy: $285-$305/t.

Premiums are stable, but with demand that, according to various operators, remains “sluggish and unresponsive.”

United States Slows: Weak Spot, Holidays, and Global Surplus

On the other side of the Atlantic, the US zinc market is proceeding at an even slower pace. Thanksgiving week—traditionally characterized by reduced activity—has amplified a lull already evident in previous weeks.

The US Midwest direct deposit (DDP) SHG premium fell to 17-20 cents/lb, after remaining higher (18-20.50 cents/lb) the previous week. Actual transactions confirm a soft market:

• One bid was recorded at 17 cents/lb;
• One contract was concluded below 20 cents/lb;
• And several spot indications are fluctuating between 18 and 20.50 cents/lb.

One participant summarized the situation thus: “The metal is available from a multitude of sources. There is no shortage, so the market has no reason to run.”

Widespread availability and less pressing industrial demand are playing into buyers’ hands, while the delay in negotiations for 2026 contracts is increasingly weighing heavily.

According to some initial expectations, many negotiations should have concluded by Thanksgiving. The reality is different: negotiations are proceeding slowly, lacking the decisive push to reach a conclusion.

Complicating the situation is a new update from the International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). According to estimates, the global refined zinc market recorded:

• a surplus of 20,300 tons in September alone;
• Cumulative surplus of 120,500 tons in the first nine months of 2025.

Furthermore, the surplus is being “reassessed”: ILZSG recently lowered its production estimates for July and August, reducing the originally projected surplus. This leads to an implied surplus of around 70,000 tons in the third quarter, broadly in line with Commodity Evolution’s forecasts.

The message is clear: the world doesn’t have a zinc shortage problem. In fact, it has too much of it.

This context explains the weakness of the US spot market and contributes to dampening European producers’ enthusiasm for 2026 premiums.

Asia Between Immobility and Differentiation: Shanghai Frozen, Southeast Asia Seeking Balance

While Europe and the United States are progressing slowly, Asia presents an even more fragmented picture, where the geography of the zinc trade determines very different dynamics from country to country.

In Shanghai, premiums for SHG (99.995%) zinc remained unchanged once again, at $110-130/t CIF Shanghai and $120-130/t IN-WHS Shanghai, levels that have remained unchanged since June.
This stagnation has a specific cause: import arbitrage remains deeply unfavorable.

The updated calculation indicates a loss of $456.36/t, worsening from -$437.35/t the previous week.

Under these conditions, no Chinese trader finds it profitable to import material: bringing zinc from abroad means immediate losses, and significant losses.

It’s therefore not surprising that liquidity has evaporated.

“It’s been a very slow week. I haven’t heard any fresh offers or concluded contracts,” explains a Shanghai source.

The market is essentially at a standstill, with minimal volumes and trading close to zero.

Southeast Asia: Chinese Materials Rarely Accepted, Korean Materials Hold Premiums

In Southeast Asia, however, there is movement—but it’s uneven.

The arrival of new Chinese material initially exerted downward pressure, pushing CIF Southeast Asia premiums to $120-150/t, with the low end of the range down $10 from the previous $130-150/t.

A deal for Chinese metal—between $110 and $120/t CIF, for a 500-1,000-ton lot—confirms the trend. Yet, even with competitive prices, the market is reacting cautiously.

The reality is that Chinese brands are not particularly well-known among regional users, many of whom prefer to avoid purchasing if the premium is identical to that of more established brands.

“If the price is the same, users prefer not to purchase Chinese units,” says a Singapore-based source.

Cargoes from South Korea, estimated between $140 and $150/t CIF, are supporting the higher end of the range, although they are available in very limited quantities due to the limited supply of Korea Zinc-branded units.

Singapore and Malaysian FCA premiums also remain stable at $110-$125/t, a sign that the spot market is present but fragile.

On the inventory front, the situation is stable:

• Singapore: 26,600 t on-warrant;
• Malaysia: 1,050 t on-warrant.

Levels that confirm a well-supplied market, but not oversupplied.

Conclusion: Three Markets, One Uncertainty

From Europe’s tactical calm to the stealthy steps of the US Midwest, to the Asian fragmentation between Chinese inertia and resistance from Southeast Asia, the global zinc market enters the final part of the year in a unique situation: ample metal available, but little clarity on real demand.

European producers would like to start 2026 with higher premiums, but weak demand and the global surplus reported by the ILZSG suggest caution.

The United States continues to maintain a plentiful and tension-free market, while in Asia, unfavorable arbitrage and low confidence in some brands are reshaping trade routes.

The shared feeling among operators is that 2026 will not begin with an accelerating market, but with a sector that will still have to contend with oversupply and lackluster demand.

Zinc is currently moving slowly. But just when markets seem stagnant, the most significant changes often begin.