Commodity Evolution – NewsLetter July 2025

Update to July 4 – Industrial metals trend – June 2025

Over the past month, non-ferrous metals have shown a predominantly positive picture, albeit with significant differences between raw materials. Monthly changes, expressed in $/ton and €/ton, reflect both market dynamics and the effects of the euro-dollar exchange rate.

Prices in $/ton – 1-month changes

• Primary aluminum is the metal with the best performance of the month: +6.40%, thanks to a more rigid supply context and speculation on possible logistics disruptions.
• Tin advances by +4.32%, supported by low inventories and positive signals on electronic demand.
• Lead records a good +4.40%, in line with a balanced physical market.
• Zinc gains +3.23%, reflecting expectations of recovery in the construction and automotive industries.
• Copper closes the month at +1.79%, after a recovery in recent weeks on more favorable macro expectations.
• Nickel remains in decline with -0.69%, held back by surplus supply and weakness in the stainless steel sector.

Prices in €/ton – 1-month changes

• Primary aluminum shows a good growth of +3.56%, contained compared to the data in USD but still solid.
• Tin rises by +1.54%, also recovering in European currency.
• Lead records a +1.61%, in line with the performance in dollars.
• Zinc marks a +0.48%, maintaining a slightly positive tone.
• Copper falls by -0.93%, affected by the exchange rate effect.
• Nickel confirms its decline with a -3.34%, worsening compared to the change in dollars.

June saw broad-based gains in dollar terms, with aluminum being the best performer, followed by tin, lead and zinc. However, the strengthening of the euro partially neutralized these gains, making the results expressed in European currency more modest (or negative), especially for copper and nickel.

Ferrous and Stainless Steel Scrap Market in June: Between Signs of Collapse, Foreign Pressures and Widespread Uncertainty

The month of June has shown a fluctuating dynamic for the ferrous scrap market in Italy. After a start characterized by a partial recovery, with increases up to €10/t in the first ten days of the month, the trend quickly reversed in the last week, erasing previous gains.

This sharp reversal was determined by a combination of factors: industrial demand, already weak for months, showed no signs of recovery and Italian steel mills, also held back by high energy costs, continued to operate at a reduced rate.

Despite the limited availability of scrap – especially higher quality scrap such as sheet metal and selected demolitions – prices have not held up: the gap between suppliers’ requests and the actual spending availability of steel mills has remained too wide.

In parallel, the arrival of scrap by sea and billets at competitive prices (also thanks to the depreciation of the dollar) has introduced further pressure on the domestic market, already in the balance.

The First Signs of a Slowdown in Prices and the Impact of Production Cuts

In the last week of June, the Italian market showed the first concrete signs of slowdown: according to market sources, prices began to fall between €5 and €10/t, with a more marked impact on the most noble categories, such as sheet metal.

Many operators believe that this movement represents only the beginning of a broader correction. “The ground is being prepared for a more significant decline,” commented a producer in the sector, referring to the first operational cuts implemented by steel mills.

Some plants, in fact, have already started a reduction in daily hours worked up to -8 hours, while others have announced the advancement of maintenance stops to mid-July.

The picture remains conditioned by the same elements already known: the high cost of energy, the high incidence of fixed costs and the weak demand for finished products.

Tensions on the International Market Between Low Activity and Competitive Pressures

At the international level, the scrap market experienced a June of apparent stability, but marked by a deep structural weakness. After a slight decline in the first half of the month, prices returned to rise cautiously, recording variations around $10/t.

The dynamics were very heterogeneous among the main areas: in Turkey and Asia, stagnation and low activity remained the distinctive features, although in the second part of the month a timid revival of demand was noted.

Some Turkish and Asian buyers in fact advanced CFR offers between $340 and $345/t, especially for scrap from the United States and the Baltics.

However, this momentum was immediately slowed by the influx of Asian billets at very competitive prices, which attracted demand, reducing the appeal of scrap.

Other factors contributing to this pressure include the continued weakening of the dollar and weak demand for rebar in the Middle East, which remains the main outlet for many Turkish products.

Europe Stalled by Limited Trade and Competition from Billets

In Europe, the situation is not much different. Material availability remained low, but demand was even weaker. Trade was at minimal volumes, and here too Asian billets played a central role in placing an implicit ceiling on scrap prices.

Market sources indicate that, on average, scrap prices stood at around $460/t CFR, with no room for significant increases.

In Germany, Austria and France, conditions appeared apparently stable, but there are fears of a possible imminent correction of around €10/t, favored precisely by the weak dollar and the wait-and-see attitude of producers.

Stainless Steel: A June of Immobility Between Weak Demand and Penalizing Exchange Rate

The stainless steel sector also fully reflected the fragility of the macroeconomic and industrial scenario. In Italy, demand remained weak throughout the month, almost to the point of a real market paralysis as the summer break approached.

Many steel mills suspended purchases altogether, adopting a wait-and-see approach in the hope of a more marked drop in prices. However, this strategy had the side effect of a further freezing of the market, with very little trade and a visible contraction in volumes.

Globally, India — traditionally one of the main outlet markets for stainless steel — also showed clear signs of weakening demand.

This drop in interest was combined with an unfavorable currency context: the strengthening of the euro penalized European exports and made imports in local currency more expensive for buyers, further reducing trading opportunities.

The result? European traders preferred to hold on to available stocks, avoiding selling at prices considered too low.

Superalloys and Special Steels: Shrinking Markets and a Wait-and-Sell Strategy

The slowdown trend has also extended to superalloys and special steels, sectors that are known to be more resilient but which, in June, were unable to escape the general weakness.

Transactions have decreased in frequency and volume, with prices under pressure and demand that continues to deteriorate, especially in the more technical and niche segments.

Operators have been cautious, with many buyers waiting for further declines before proceeding with new orders.

A Climate of Generalized Uncertainty That Overwhelms the Entire Supply Chain

June therefore ends with a negative balance for the entire scrap supply chain — both ferrous and stainless — in Italy and globally. The bullish pressures at the beginning of the month have proven ephemeral, leaving room for a phase of progressive weakening.

The structural difficulties of the European steel sector — primarily low demand and high energy costs — have had direct impacts on scrap supply markets.

At the international level, growing competition from Asian billets, the erosion of the price differential with scrap, and the unfavorable currency environment (with a falling dollar penalizing European exports) have aggravated the pressure on prices and effective demand.

Steel mills, squeezed between compressed margins and rising operating costs, are adopting increasingly defensive strategies, reducing hours worked, postponing orders and anticipating summer shutdowns. All this translates into a lower absorption of scrap and a slowdown of the entire ecosystem.

Outlook for July: Correction Underway, Negative Sentiment and Frozen Expectations

Expectations for the month of July are marked by caution. Many operators are already reporting ongoing negotiations for further reductions, with a range expected between €5 and €10/t.

Weak demand is now a constant and the arrival of the summer holidays risks accentuating the reduction in traded volumes. In this scenario, prices are destined to remain under pressure, while supply – although limited – could be forced to adapt to increasingly rigid market conditions.

In the international sector, geopolitical instability, currency fluctuations and the performance of competing raw materials (such as billets) will continue to play a key role in the evolution of sentiment.

The next few weeks will be decisive in understanding whether this will be a temporary correction or the start of a new downward phase.

Survival Strategies: Restructuring, Inventories Under Control and Focus on Costs

In the absence of concrete signs of recovery, most operators are reviewing their strategies. Attention is increasingly focused on optimal inventory management, the reduction of fixed costs and the selection of suppliers capable of offering flexibility in terms of timing and prices.

Wait-and-see attitudes, although justified in such an unstable context, risk turning into immobility if not supported by structural interventions and long-term industrial policies.

In the meantime, competition between regional markets is intensifying, with Asia gaining ground thanks to its logistical competitiveness and ability to offer semi-finished products at aggressive prices.

Conclusion: A Summer Under the Sign of Volatility and Waiting

Summer 2025 promises to be complicated for the scrap industry. The signs of weakness already visible in June could turn into a longer and more difficult transition phase, characterized by unstable prices, weak demand and prudent operational choices.

The compass for operators remains caution: avoiding impulsive choices, carefully monitoring international developments and maintaining operational flexibility will be the keys to navigating a market that, at least for now, offers no certainties or fixed points.

While waiting for a real restart, the sector is called to resist. And observe.