Aluminium: power outages and low rainfall affect Chinese supply pushing up imports

China has significantly increased its reliance on aluminium imports this year due to lower domestic aluminium supply. According to reports, the move is part of a strategic measure to partially offset lower than average domestic production. Indeed, new customs data reveal that China recorded a significant 10.7 per cent increase in aluminium imports in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year.

The increase in imports amounted to 1.2 million tonnes of raw aluminium and related products. Among the most important products are primary metal and alloyed aluminium. In June, imports reached 211,235 metric tonnes. This is a substantial increase of 12.8% compared to the corresponding month in 2022.

China reduced its annual aluminium production due to various factors. This led directly to the country’s inability to meet demand since the beginning of the post-COVID period. One example is China’s Yunnan region, which accounts for about 12% of the country’s total aluminium supply. Since September last year, Yunnan has faced power outages due to low rainfall, which has affected power generation in the region. In turn, these power outages have forced Yunnan’s electrolytic aluminium producers to reduce energy use, causing a slowdown in production growth.

That said, Chinese primary aluminium production reached 10.1 million tonnes in the first three months of this year. This is an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period last year. However, it is still not enough to meet demand.

Aluminum Primary Production World Vs China – Powered by Commodity Evolution

In addition, there has been substantial growth in imports of bauxite, a key raw material for aluminum production. In June, for example, bauxite imports increased by 22.9%. Meanwhile, in the first half of the year, imports increased by 10.6%.

As the largest global consumer of metals, analysts expect China to implement more stimulus measures to support its economy. If this were to happen, there could be an increase in the demand for industrial metals and the supply of aluminum.

Furthermore, in the year following its invasion of Ukraine, China significantly increased imports of Russian aluminum, almost doubling the previous volume. This surge in imports is due to some Western buyers avoiding metal from the main raw material supplier.

Change % in Aluminum Primary Production World Vs China – Powered by Commodity Evolution