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Preliminary data released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) indicates that global copper mine production increased 3.7% in the first three months of 2021, with concentrate production up 5.5%.
- WORLD MINING PRODUCTION
Global mine production began to recover in June 2020 as lockout measures were eased and the industry adapted to stricter sanitation protocols that remain in place through 2021.
Production in Peru, the world’s second-largest copper mining country, increased 3% primarily because March production was up 18% from March 2020. However, January-March 2021 production is still 10% lower than January-March 2019 production.
Indonesian production increased by approximately 91% primarily due to continued increases in underground production at the Grasberg mine.
Strong increases were also seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Panama and Russia due to additional production from new or expanded operations.
However, in Chile, the world’s largest copper mining country, total production fell 2% while concentrate production increased 3.5%.
- WORLD PRODUCTION REFINED COPPER
Preliminary data indicate that global refined copper production increased by about 4% in the first three months of 2021, with primary production (electrolytic and electrospinning) up 4.2% and secondary production (from scrap) up 2.3%.
Preliminary official data for China’s refined production indicates 8% growth. Chilean electrolytic refined production increased by 15%. This is mainly due to the fact that in the 2020 comparative period, production was increasing after smelter upgrades to comply with new environmental regulations.
Total Chilean production of refined copper (electrolytic and electrospinning) decreased by 6%.
In Africa, refined production increased 16% in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to continued growth in new or expanded SX-EW plants, and 39% in Zambia, where production recovered from smelter operational issues and temporary outages during 2019 and early 2020.
Preliminary data indicate small declines in Brazil, Japan, Mexico (SX-EW), Russia, Spain (SX-EW), and Sweden for various reasons including maintenance work, operational issues, and SX-EW plant closures.
Globally, refined secondary production (from scrap) increased 2.3%, with China contributing the most to growth.
- WORLD PRODUCTION OF REFINED COPPER (APPARENT)
Preliminary data indicate that global refined copper use (apparent) increased by 4.5% in the first three months of 2021.
The COVID-19-related global freeze has had a significant negative impact on the global economy and consequently on key copper end-use sectors in all regions, excluding China. Although use began to recover in the second half of the 2020s, global demand remains below pre-pandemic levels in most countries.
Global refined copper use, excluding China, was significantly affected by the pandemic and is estimated to have declined by about 9% in 2020. Use in the first three months of this year is estimated to have declined by an additional 4%.
In contrast, Chinese use (excluding changes in mandatory/undeclared stocks) increased by about 13%, supported by a 5.8% increase in net refined imports.
The preliminary world refined copper balance for the first three months of 2021 indicates an apparent surplus of about 130,000 tons. In the first three months of 2021, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent use (excluding changes in unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of 130,000 tons. The world refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese stocks indicated a market surplus of about 150,000 t.
- WORLD STOCKS
China’s copper stocks are estimated to have increased by about 10,000 t in the first three months of 2021 compared to the year-end 2020 level.
At the end of May 2021, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totaled 383,594 t, an increase of 132,419 t (+53%) compared to stocks held at the end of December 2020. Inventories decreased at COMEX (-22%) and increased at the
LME (+14%) and SHFE (+177%).
